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One of the most anticipated showdowns of the season is on the docket this week, as UConn and USC face off in a rematch of the 2024 Elite Eight in Hartford, Conn. Both teams boast top-10 offenses and defenses, per Her Hoop Stats, which generally indicates a national title contender.
During the preseason, this game was billed as a battle between the two projected favorites for national Player of the Year: Paige Bueckers and JuJu Watkins. However, another player has usurped the two in that conversation, the same one who helped deliver the Huskies and the Trojans their lone losses of the season. Both Bueckers and Watkins were outplayed by Hannah Hidalgo in their matchups against Notre Dame, as Hidalgo has earned pole position in the NPOY race.
It is far too early in the season to arrive at any conclusions, but to have three players putting together such solid cases is a stark contrast to how the race has borne out over the last two seasons. With Lauren Betts and Madison Booker also leading national title hopefuls (UCLA and Texas have top-10 offenses and defenses, too), Hidalgo might not even be the favorite for much longer. The relative parity among teams atop the rankings also extends to the best players in the country.
That adds even more intrigue to a marquee matchup between UConn and USC. In addition to getting a pre-tournament test, each team’s star could use a big performance to make up ground on Hidalgo.
Three rising teams
Southern California
While Kiki Iriafen adjusts to her offensive role at USC, her frontcourt partner Rayah Marshall has been expanding her skills. Marshall always has been a dominant defensive presence, and that hasn’t changed as a senior. Her block percentage is in the 99th percentile nationally, and she deters even more shots. Opponents are shooting a preposterous 23.9 percent with Marshall as the primary defender, as she can defend the post and cover ground on the perimeter. USC’s defense is 16.7 points per 100 possessions better with Marshall on the court.
Kentucky
Georgia Amoore’s 3-point shooting has fallen off of a cliff this season, as the career 35.3 percent shooter is making a quarter of her attempts from beyond the arc. As the alpha and omega of Kentucky’s offense, Amoore needs to be an individual scoring threat for the Wildcats to win games against good opponents. Against North Carolina two weeks ago, Amoore missed all five of her 3-point attempts, and Kentucky was routed by 19 points.
Georgia Tech
The last unbeaten team in the ACC is Georgia Tech, an outcome no one would have predicted coming into the season. The Yellow Jackets have quality wins over South Dakota State, Oregon and now on the road against North Carolina, when they were an absolute buzzsaw in the first half.
Two falling teams
Texas
This is nitpicking for the Longhorns after they won two games by a combined 69 points this week, including on the road against Richmond, which is 25th in the NET. But something about Texas’ offense is nagging at me.
Madison Booker is the only consistent scoring threat, and her offense is reliant on some difficult shots, which, to her credit, she makes at a high clip. But the Longhorns are a little isolation-heavy and don’t take many 3-pointers, which limits their upside against the best teams. Ideally, Aaliyah Moore or Laila Phelia would be that secondary offensive force behind Booker, but neither has popped this season. It doesn’t help that the paint is supremely crowded, even more so now that Rori Harmon — who isn’t regarded as a shooter — has replaced Shaylee Gonzales in the starting lineup.
Iowa
The Hawkeyes keep putting on a show, but they need to figure out how to close out games. A week ago, they unraveled in the fourth quarter against Tennessee, surrendering a 14-1 run in their first loss of the season. Sunday against Michigan State, Iowa blew a 9-point lead and allowed a 14-0 fourth-quarter run. Those two games did sandwich a Hawkeyes comeback against Iowa State, but that ending was more about the Cyclones’ struggles than Iowa.
The turnovers are getting out of control for the Hawkeyes, who are giving the ball away on 25 percent of possessions in the clutch. This has come despite Iowa’s often going small down the stretch and playing with more ballhandlers. Instead, the Hawkeyes have struggled to control possession and compromised their defense in the process, as the lineups with Hannah Stuelke at the five don’t get enough stops. Some of the giveaways are just comical, such as an errant pass that landed in coach Jan Jensen’s hands in the final period against Michigan State.
Iowa has some younger players this season, but the turnovers are coming from their veterans — Lucy Olsen had seven against the Spartans, and fellow senior Kylie Feuerbach had five. Stuelke and senior Addison O’Grady are combining to average 4.9 turnovers from the frontcourt spots. With the Hawkeyes’ fast-paced style, some mistakes are expected, but this level of carelessness cannot continue in the Big Ten.
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