Here is the result in plain text:
Who will win the first 12-team College Football Playoff national championship? I believe there are six teams that have the personnel, savvy, and leadership to make a run and win it all, handling top competition as the margin for error gets smaller and the spotlight gets so much brighter.
Here are my picks for the Playoff:
First round
(8) Ohio State over (9) Tennessee
8 p.m. ET | Saturday, December 21 | Columbus, Ohio
I love this opening-round matchup. The Vols will have the best defense the Buckeyes have played, and young Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava has been impressive down the stretch, throwing 11 touchdowns and just one interception in five November games. But I think the Buckeyes’ defense will be the difference against a shaky Vols O-line in a very hostile environment.
(5) Texas over (12) Clemson
4 p.m. ET | Saturday, December 21 | Austin, Texas
Clemson, the ACC champ, has won two national titles under Dabo Swinney. But the Tigers are just 2-3 against teams with winning records and 0-2 vs. the SEC, and now they head to Austin. It’s a very intriguing QB battle here. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, born in Austin, has been terrific and gotten better as the season has gone on, while Quinn Ewers and the Texas offense have sputtered over the past month.
(7) Notre Dame over (10) Indiana
8 p.m. ET | Friday, December 20 | South Bend, Ind.
Indiana doesn’t get a home game, but won’t have to travel far to visit Notre Dame for the first matchup between the in-state foes since 1991. The Hoosiers have been a great story this season, but Notre Dame’s defense will be too much for IU. And even though the Hoosiers have the top-ranked run defense in the Big Ten, the Irish run game is very dangerous and capable of causing problems.
(6) Penn State over (11) SMU
Noon ET | Saturday, December 21 | State College, Pa.
SMU got into the Playoff with the last at-large bid despite losing to Clemson on Saturday and faces Penn State in Happy Valley, where there will be a raucous crowd. The Nittany Lions have an elite running back tandem in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and ran all over a good Oregon defense. The Mustangs have been superb at shutting down the run, with only Boston College averaging more than 4 yards per carry against them this year, and they yield an ACC-best 2.74 yards a rush. SMU also protects its quarterbacks well (only 15 sacks allowed in 13 games).
Quarterfinals
(1) Oregon over (8) Ohio State
5 p.m. ET | Wednesday, January 1 | Rose Bowl | Pasadena, Calif.
This would be a fun rematch. The Buckeyes almost beat the Ducks in Autzen Stadium at midseason, and now they can play again in the Rose Bowl. I picked Ohio State to win it all in the preseason. I still think the Buckeyes are talented enough to win the title, even after their dud performance against Michigan two weeks ago, but it’s become apparent this squad is struggling under the pressure it seems to be putting on itself now.
(5) Texas over (4) Arizona State
1 p.m. ET | Wednesday, January 1 | Peach Bowl | Atlanta
This matchup would be fascinating for a variety of reasons, but start with this: The Longhorns came within a play of being in the national title game last year, while the Sun Devils were picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the preseason after going 3-9 in Kenny Dillingham’s first season. The Sun Devils are arguably the hottest team in the country right now, winning six in a row. Running back Cam Skattebo has been a beast, and this ASU team looks like it’s really feeding off his energy and his attitude.
(2) Georgia over (7) Notre Dame
8:45 p.m. ET | Wednesday, January 1 | Sugar Bowl | New Orleans
Notre Dame’s O-line, which was such a question mark early in the season, has held up very well, allowing just 15 sacks in 12 games. But Georgia’s front seven is scary — just ask Ewers and Texas, whose solid O-line the Dawgs have overwhelmed twice. I do think the Irish’s defense is good enough to keep this one close, but the Georgia athleticism comes at you in waves. The Bulldogs will force a big turnover or two in the second half to pull away.
(6) Penn State over (3) Boise State
7:30 p.m. ET | Tuesday, December 31 | Fiesta Bowl | Glendale, Ariz.
Penn State lost to Ohio State at home and Oregon in the Big Ten title game, yet it got a more favorable draw than either of them. In SMU and now Boise State, the Nittany Lions face two teams that were both Group of Five programs last year.
Semifinals
(1) Oregon over (5) Texas
7:30 p.m. ET | Friday, January 10 | Cotton Bowl | Arlington, Texas
Gabriel has seen plenty of Texas from his Oklahoma days. He beat a really good UT team last year with the Sooners and didn’t play in the 2022 game when the Horns blew out the Sooners. His legs will be a key here; he ran for 113 yards on Texas last year.
(2) Georgia over (6) Penn State
7:30 p.m. ET | Thursday, January 9 | Orange Bowl | Miami Gardens, Fla.
Georgia’s offense has been really inconsistent, but as long as its front seven is healthy, the Bulldogs present big problems. Winning two Playoff games is a step in the right direction for James Franklin’s Nittany Lions. But I don’t see them handling the Dawgs, who are just bigger and more physical than the first two CFP opponents Penn State got.
National championship
(1) Oregon over (2) Georgia
7:30 p.m. ET | Monday, January 20 | Atlanta
Dan Lanning against his old boss Kirby Smart in the title game is a sweet subplot. The Ducks are built a lot like Smart’s squad. They have a lot of those same elite big players, maybe not quite as many of them in the front seven, and they also have better skill talent and the edge at quarterback, especially given Carson Beck’s injury questions.
To me, Oregon has the top QB in this entire field in Gabriel. He’s very experienced and accurate and has a quick release and A-plus leadership skills. Consider this: Gabriel has a 22-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio against ranked opponents over the past three seasons. The guy seems to be at his best when the spotlight gets hotter and the competition gets better, and this game is as big as it can get.
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