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We have seen college football teams back into the College Football Playoff, losing their last regular-season or conference title game and still earning a spot in the four-team field. This happened to Alabama in 2017 after losing the Iron Bowl and to Ohio State after it lost to Michigan in 2022. That was the same season TCU of the Big 12 became the first team to lose its conference championship game (to Kansas State) and still get in. In all those cases, that loss was the team’s only loss.
Now with a 12-team CFP, backing into the Playoff has a whole new meaning. Looking at you, Ohio State (10-2). Miami (10-2) too.
What we learned about the College Football Playoff in the last full weekend of the regular season is we have a pretty good idea of who will be in the College Football Playoff heading into championship weekend.
No. 2 Ohio State’s faceplant against Michigan opened the door for No. 4 Penn State to reach the Big Ten Championship Game against No. 1 Oregon. Side note: Congratulations to the Ducks (12-0) for being the only FBS team to get through 12 games unscathed.
The matchup is set. Early thoughts on who will win the B1G title game?
The Nittany Lions and Ducks look to be safely into the bracket, with the winner getting a bye. Worst case for the Ducks is hosting a first-round game. Penn State could fall all the way out of a hosting spot, depending on how other championship games work out.
The SEC has a similar situation with No. 7 Georgia facing No. 3 Texas.
The committee will not punish Georgia for reaching the championship game, though it would be in the Bulldogs’ best interest to not get blown out by the Longhorns.
Coming off that great escape against Georgia Tech, Georgia doesn’t want to give the selection committee any reason to reconsider Alabama or Mississippi, both of which beat the Bulldogs.
Winner gets in, loser goes home. A wild Big 12 race ended somewhat routinely. All the favorites won this weekend, putting No. 18 Iowa State (10-2) and No. 16 Arizona State (10-2) in the conference title game.
Same goes for the Mountain West, where No. 11 Boise State hosts No. 22 UNLV on Friday night. The American Athletic Conference will argue for Army (10-1) if it beats Tulane.
A loss but shouldn’t have a problem being one of the five highest-ranked conference champions if it wins the ACC.
Ohio State’s latest loss to Michigan was the worst one yet during this four-game skid in The Game.
Still, the second-ranked Buckeyes (10-2) are in a group that looks safely into the bracket even though they won’t play championship weekend.
No. 5 Notre Dame (11-1) closed the season with 10 straight victories. The Fighting Irish can’t earn a bye because they’re not in a conference but should have no trouble getting the first-round home game that they have been pointing toward since the end of last season.
For the Buckeyes, being in position to back into the Playoff seemed to be no consolation for losing to Michigan again.
I’m not there right now, quite honestly. Still trying to digest everything that just happened, and I have a locker room full of guys who are just devastated. – Ryan Day, Ohio State coach
As we said, if Clemson wins, someone is getting bumped. Who will be that someone? How about Miami? The Hurricanes already handed the Tigers their spot in the ACC title game. The Canes had several great escapes early in the season but closed the year losing two of four. On the bright side, losing one-score games to Georgia Tech and at Syracuse is nothing to be ashamed of.
This team won 10 football games against some really good teams. – Mario Cristobal, Miami coach
What about Indiana?
This committee seems unlikely to turn away an 11-1 team, with its only loss at Ohio State, but the fact remains that outside of the Buckeyes, the only team the Hoosiers played that finished above .500 was Michigan (7-5). Hey, Ohio State couldn’t beat the Wolverines at home, and Indiana did. So that’s something. Both the Hoosiers and Hurricanes should become big SMU fans.
The committee hasn’t shown much interest in giving these three-loss SEC teams the benefit of a doubt, but the company line is every week the group starts with a blank sheet of paper, so we should be open-minded to a big shift.
The hot team is No. 15 South Carolina, which closed the season with six straight victories.
If the committee’s job is to pick the 12 best teams, you tell me? Ironically, South Carolina’s case gets even better if Clemson wins the ACC, but Clemson winning the ACC also clutters the list of at-large teams by adding SMU. The other issue South Carolina has is losses to the two teams ranked directly ahead of it: No. 13 Alabama and No. 14 Mississippi.
Well, I think everyone’s aware of our schedule, and I don’t know the exact stats, but I know we beat four Top-25 teams throughout the year. And I don’t know how many, if anyone, has done that. – Kalen DeBoer, Alabama coach
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