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With the calendar about to flip over to April, we’re down to three weeks left in the regular season. And that means we don’t have many of these columns left. The finish line is in sight.
It’s safe to assume the last few weeks will be dedicated to breaking down the various playoff races, unless every bubble team in the East just voluntarily folds their franchise to avoid landing a spot it’s clear nobody wants. But in this semi-calm before the storm, a few of you have pointed out we’ve yet to visit an annual tradition around here: recognizing the teams that made it through the entire season without ever landing in either the top or bottom five.
This is the true middle of the pack, although as you’ll see, they come in some very different flavors. And this year, the numbers reinforce that in a pleasingly symmetrical way: 11 different teams showed up in the top five, and 11 more had at least one appearance in the bottom five. That leaves us with an even 10 teams that didn’t appear on either list all season long. Let’s divide them into categories.
Bonus Five: The teams that haven’t made the top or bottom five all year
It’s tough to crack either list for the first time this late in the season, but two teams have been good enough to be in top five consideration at a few points during the year and could theoretically still make it.
That would be the Lightning and the Maple Leafs, two teams battling with the Panthers for first in the Atlantic. The Panthers have been in the top five for much of the season despite having a similar record, which I think is fair given all their recent playoff success. But first place and a matchup with a wild-card is looming large, so if either the Leafs or Lightning got red-hot and ran away with the division down the stretch, they’d have a top-five case. For now, though, they’ve been just short.
4. The teams that weren’t close to the top five but are still happy with their season:
I’ll put four teams in this category. The first is the Kings, a classic case of a team that’s been consistently good with occasional gusts up to great, but never all that close to top-five status. I’ll also include the Senators and Blues, two teams that have had their ups and downs but look like playoff teams down the stretch. And then there’s the Flames, a nice story that seems to be fading down the stretch. I’m not sure that finishing 10th in the West would feel like a major success, but this is a team a lot of us wrote off before the season even started, and they spent most of the year proving us wrong.
On that note … Wow, this game:
The 2024-25 Vancouver Canucks: A lot of things, but definitely not boring.
A bonus note: We managed to avoid the dreaded “team that showed up on both lists” this year. Well done, everyone, we cleared the lowest possible bar there is. On to this week’s rankings…
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
5. Carolina Hurricanes (45-24-4, +44 true goals differential*) — They look good, the Devils do not, and Thursday’s meeting with the Capitals feels a lot like a second-round preview.
4. Vegas Golden Knights (45-20-8, +57) — Six straight wins, all in regulation and by a combined score of 28-11, suggests a team hitting its stride at exactly the right time. Home games against the Oilers tomorrow and Jets on Thursday will be great tests.
3. Washington Capitals (47-17-9, +72) — Three straight losses, including one to the first-in-conference Jets and another to the last-in-conference Sabres, isn’t enough to have us panicking. These are the long-term rankings, and Caps fans had to wait for us to get on board, so we’re not going to bail now after a bad week. But let’s get it back on track tomorrow in Boston, OK?
2. Dallas Stars (48-21-4, +63) — I’m nervous about the first-round matchup, I’m nervous about the Miro Heiskanen injury…
1. Buffalo Sabres (31-36-6, -24) — Sabres fans, how are we feeling about this recent warm streak with nothing left to play for? Good sign for the future, or infuriating draft pick sabotage? (For the record, there is a right answer here.)
If you missed it, be sure to check out Matthew’s deep dive into just how much misery a fan base can be expected to handle.
Not ranked: Montreal Canadiens — The losing streak is over. Everybody breathe.
The picture gets brighter. They might be blowing it, yes, but let’s remember that the “it” here is a playoff spot nobody really thought they had a shot at this year. The realistic goal heading into the season was to play meaningful games (with apologies to Tortorella) and stay close enough to the race that they could shock the world. Now it feels like a failure that they haven’t been able to lock up a spot with 10 games still left to play. It’s easy to forget how much the expectations have shifted in a relatively short amount of time.
Will any of that matter if this team ends up coughing up a playoff spot that was there for the taking? I think it should. That doesn’t mean it won’t sting, because of course it would. But if the season was about progress, it’s already been an inarguable success, one that’s seen the Habs drive past teams like the Sabres and Red Wings who were supposed to be years ahead of them. What more could a reasonable fan want?
A playoff spot, sure. The path is there. None of those games are guaranteed, but they’re winnable. And at the very least, they’re damn sure meaningful.
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