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When President Trump threatened tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China in January, saying those countries needed to do more to stop the flow of drugs and migrants into the United States, Canadian and Mexican officials raced to Washington, bearing charts and videos detailing their efforts to toughen their borders.
Canada created a “fentanyl czar” and committed fresh resources to combating organized crime, while Mexico dispatched troops to the border and delivered cartel operatives into U.S. custody. As a result, Mr. Trump paused tariffs on America’s North American neighbors for 30 days.
China never made these kinds of overtures and, in Mr. Trump’s view, did not take any big moves to stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States. So on Feb. 4, Mr. Trump moved forward with imposing a 10 percent tariff on all Chinese imports. Last week, the president said that on March 4 he would add another 10 percent on top of all existing Chinese tariffs.
The Chinese side has conveyed they would like to work with the United States on mutually beneficial measures. But they have been struggling to identify people in the United States that they see as reliable channels for communication, according to a person close to the Chinese government.
They are also trying to assess the significance of some recent steps by the administration, like a memorandum that proposed strict limits on investment between the countries. Mr. Trump publicly contradicted that memo days after he signed it, saying he welcomed Chinese investment.
“They’re taking in all kinds of input, they’re beginning their consultations, they’re not pushing the panic button just yet,” said Myron Brilliant, who has spent years working with businesses to understand the Chinese and recently returned from a trip to China.
The Chinese do not want to initiate a conversation because they do not want to be seen as pleading, and are wary of offering concessions before they understand the parameters of the debate, people familiar with the discussions said.
Mr. Trump is moving quickly to transform the US-China trade relationship. The Chinese are moving much more cautiously and deliberately as they try to assess Mr. Trump and determine what it is he actually wants from China.
There is a willingness, an appetite to do a deal with the Trump administration, but China doesn’t want preconditions on that, and seeks more clarity on the parameters of a deal, said Mr. Brilliant, a senior counselor at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group, an advisory firm.
In late February, a delegation including Cui Tiankai, the former Chinese ambassador to the United States, met with representatives of think tanks in Washington, according to more than half a dozen people familiar with the discussions.
The Chinese delegation conveyed hope that the countries could reach an accommodation, and floated ideas for a potential trade deal, including significant purchases of American agricultural products and Chinese investment in the United States, several people said.
They called for treating China as an equal partner and criticized past measures taken by the Biden administration to “contain” China, like export controls. The delegation also threatened that, if further US tariffs went into effect, China could withdraw a law enforcement package that it had put together to combat the fentanyl trade, which included information that could be used to prosecute Chinese companies, one of the people said.
Mr. Trump also believes that China reneged on the deal he signed with it in 2020 by not purchasing enough products. Mr. Trump also has no aversion to ramping up the pressure on Beijing by imposing tariffs, seeing them as a source of leverage in negotiations.
Current and former advisers and others familiar with Mr. Trump’s thinking say he has expressed interest in striking a wide-ranging deal with Mr. Xi, which could involve Chinese purchases and investment, as well as cooperation on issues like nuclear security.
The tariffs that Mr. Trump has threatened to impose on China since coming into office are already roughly comparable to those he imposed during his first administration, said Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. In 2018, Mr. Trump put tariffs ranging from 7.5 to 25 percent on more than $350 billion of Chinese imports, levies that remain in effect.
It’s still early days, Mr. Kennedy said. This should be seen as the floor of what’s imposed, not the ceiling.
Chinese academics and think tank officials have begun floating various ideas for a trade deal. One proposal is for the Chinese to make major investments in the United States in areas like electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels, which could create an estimated 500,000 U.S. jobs, according to one person with direct knowledge of the proposal. In an unusual move, Chinese companies would be willing to license technology to American partners and hold minority stakes in ventures to mitigate national security concerns, the person said.
Another tentative offer is the purchase of goods and services from the United States in agriculture, aerospace, energy and possibly even technology. The Chinese have also suggested buying more U.S. Treasuries, and honed in on a concern Mr. Trump recently voiced about a move by a handful of nations, including China and Russia to create a new reserve currency, threatening the U.S. dollar. The Chinese have proposed Beijing could stand down on that effort.
Chinese diplomats and academics have indicated that Beijing might also help the United States achieve a deal between Russia and Ukraine and assist in Ukraine’s reconstruction.
Given national security concerns in the United States about closer ties with China, it’s not clear that the two sides could find agreement on any of these issues. And some analysts say that Mr. Trump’s moves to ratchet up tariffs are making any conciliation from the Chinese less likely, since Mr. Xi will not want to look as if he’s caving to Mr. Trump.
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