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To a large extent, the electric vehicle market in the United States runs on Democratic policies. There are federal tax credits for car buyers. Subsidies for battery manufacturing. Cheap loans to build electric car factories. Grants for chargers. Regulations that push automakers to sell more vehicles with no tailpipe emissions.
All of that support — amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars — could go away soon after the inauguration of President-elect Donald J. Trump, despite his close association with Elon Musk, chief executive of the electric car maker Tesla.
Mr. Trump and Republicans in Congress say they plan to eliminate most of the federal aid for electric cars and trucks and reverse emissions rules, raising doubts about the future of such vehicles and the billions of dollars that automakers have invested to design and build them.
Still, many auto experts say market forces and technological progress will ultimately drive a long-term transition to electric vehicles regardless of how far Republicans go in undoing President Biden’s climate agenda.
Prices of batteries, the most expensive part of an electric vehicle, are falling fast. Already, many electric cars cost no more to own than comparable gasoline models when savings on fuel and maintenance are taken into account.
Technology is improving rapidly. Batteries are becoming lighter and smaller while allowing faster charging and longer travel distances. And more than 12,000 high-voltage public chargers were added in the United States in 2024, a 33 percent increase from the year prior, according to Rho Motion, a research firm.
Automakers have a strong financial interest in promoting electric vehicles no matter who is in the White House. They need to earn a return on the investments they have made in production facilities. And failing to keep up with the technology could make them vulnerable to emerging Chinese competitors that are all-in on electric vehicles.
On average, an electric car in the United States sold for $55,105 in 2024, compared with $48,165 for a gasoline car, according to Cox.
Many states, including Colorado, New York and Washington, provide subsidies for electric vehicles that will remain in place. California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, has said the state will revive its incentives if federal tax credits are repealed.
In China, electric vehicle sales surged as prices fell to the same level as gasoline cars or even lower, foreshadowing what could eventually happen in the United States. Half of all new cars sold in China are electric or plug-in hybrids, compared with around 10 percent in the United States.
When price was no longer a barrier, Chinese car buyers focused on the advantages of electric vehicles, including software features that would be difficult to install in gasoline cars, said Hagen Heubach, who leads the automotive business unit of SAP, a German software company.
Chinese automakers’ success and global expansion are also putting pressure on U.S. and European automakers to continue developing the technology or risk being overrun.
Most auto executives believe that electric cars will eventually dominate, though they disagree on when that will happen. Sales of electric vehicles rose 8 percent last year in the United States, while sales of cars that run only on fossil fuels fell 2 percent, according to Cox.
Elimination of the credits would reduce electric car sales by more than 300,000 vehicles a year, equivalent to about three months of sales in 2024, according to a study published in October by professors from Stanford University; the University of Chicago; the University of California, Berkeley; and Duke University.
But the researchers also noted that many buyers would have bought electric cars even without incentives. It appears some drivers are willing to pay more because battery-powered cars have fast, quiet acceleration; can be charged at home at lower cost than a gas station fill-up; and do not need oil changes and other routine maintenance.
Only a small number of cars qualify for the federal tax credit for buyers in any case. The Inflation Reduction Act limited eligibility for the tax credits to vehicles that have a certain percentage of components made either in the United States or by its trade allies. The requirements become more stringent every year, forcing some vehicles off the list.
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