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I’ve worked in hospitality since I was 15, and this is probably the quietest January I’ve worked, says 23-year-old Willow Gwyn-Williams, a pub manager in Chelmsford. She thinks the cost of living crisis is to blame for bookings being down where she works at the William Boosey in Hatfield Peverel. People just don’t have the money to go out and do anything, she says.
Some posts on TikTok have tens of thousands of likes, showing staff finding creative ways to stay busy, including perfecting latte art or making pint glasses sparkling clean. Willow says the quieter period means fewer shifts, particularly for part-time employees, as they simply do not have the numbers to justify having extra people come into work.
The sector is warning that the rise in employer National Insurance contributions and minimum wage, announced in the Budget and due to start in April, will make it remain tough beyond January. Kate Nicholls, the chief executive of trade body UK Hospitality, says the government needs an urgent rethink of the changes – or the public will face price increases of around 6-8%. She says 80% of businesses in the sector are expected to cut staffing levels and some may be forced to close.
Louise Maclean, chief executive of Signature Group, which owns over 20 bars, restaurants and nightclubs across Scotland, employing around 700 staff, said: Everywhere is having to rein it back in. We are so worried about what’s happening on 1 April. We have to pass on the price rises to the consumer and ensure sales don’t drop… it is a big, big gamble. But that’s what we are looking at. The whole situation in 2025 is a concern and the phrase we are using is ‘survive ’25’.
Sonia Johnson owns Mamars bakery in Warrington and says the rise in minimum wage will make her biggest cost, staffing, “quite high”. On top of that she says her suppliers have indicated they will be putting up their prices in the coming months. She says luxury items, like her artisanal cheese, didn’t sell as well over Christmas as people tightened their purses, and she will have to put up prices to cover her costs.
Mohammed Sarnwal, opened The Farmhouse restaurant in Coventry in 2008 and focuses on locally-sourced, farm-to-table ingredients. He says the upcoming cost increases will “undoubtedly put pressure on margins” and that his menu prices may rise “in order for us to survive”.
A government spokesperson said it was “standing behind” hospitality by cutting 1p off alcohol duty on draught pints from February, and was giving some restaurants, pubs and bars 40% relief from business rates from April. It added that smaller businesses will either see a cut or no change in their NIC from April by “more than doubling Employment Allowance” which reduces how much a small business has to pay on NIC for its staff.
Along with the empty tables, chalk signs and offer emails, another sign of how desperate venues are to get people through the doors is the increased number of discounts, which increased by 25% in 2024.
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