It had been the NHS’s longest-running and bitterest pay dispute – responsible for hundreds of thousands of cancelled operations and appointments. And then, suddenly, word came on Monday that the British Medical Association was recommending that its 50,000 junior doctor members accept a fresh offer from the new government. It sounded almost too good to be true. And now some are wondering if it might be.
Last Friday, just three days after formal negotiations started at the Department of Health’s London headquarters, Health Secretary Wes Streeting laid his cards on the table. It was, he made clear to the British Medical Association delegation, a final offer – a pay rise topping 22% on average over two years in England.
The union’s team said they wanted to think about it over the weekend. On Sunday, the BMA junior doctor leaders met and decided that, while it fell short of their demand for a 35% pay increase, this was the best deal they could get.
Cue much trumpeting from the government – in her appearance at the House of Commons, Chancellor Rachel Reeves paid tribute to work put in by the health secretary.
A pay rise of only 2% for NHS staff was budgeted for in the funding given to the health service this year. The Treasury has indicated it will cover some of the extra, but perhaps not all. That has caused concern among senior managers running hospitals.
There’s also frustration among other frontline staff who are having to make do with much less. Staff such as nurses, midwives, paramedics and physios have received a little more than half the rise junior doctors have won. The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) has said it will now be consulting its members to see what they want to do – and industrial action is not being ruled out.
The government is naïve if it thinks this is over – other unions will look at this deal and think they can get more, not just those in the NHS but across the public sector. This could spiral out of control.
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