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When I rank prospects every offseason here at The Athletic, I’m considering the players’ eventual peaks and their long-term values, which is why you’ll see prospects who were just drafted or have only played in the complex leagues alongside prospects who’ve already made their major-league debuts. For readers more interested in which prospects might have the most impact strictly in the 2025 season, here’s a separate ranking giving you my opinions on the 25 prospects likely to deliver the most value this season. This is as much about playing time as it is about ability — a player who has an everyday job on Opening Day will get about 16 percent more playing time than another player who isn’t up until May 1.
Shaw appears to be the leader to win the third-base job in Chicago this year, and they’ve been working toward creating a path for him at least since the summer, although their quixotic pursuit of Alex Bregman would have changed Shaw’s placement on this list had they succeeded. Shaw makes a lot of high-quality contact, and he’s hit all the way up through Triple-A, showing the ability to hit the best pitching he’s faced so far.
Rocker is clearly in Texas’s rotation to start the year, and he might be their No. 3 starter depending on who’s healthy and ready to go after spring training. He should be league-average or better when he pitches; the bigger question is how much the Rangers might let him pitch, since he threw just 36 2/3 innings last year in his return from Tommy John surgery and only 62 innings total in 2022-23.
Crews might have the firmest grip on a job of anyone on this list. He was the No. 2 overall pick in 2023, made the majors last year, has nobody blocking him, and two of the guys picked right around him, Paul Skenes and Wyatt Langford, have already established themselves in the majors. Crews should hit for average and play above-average or better defense in left field right away; he’s had some slower adjustment periods in pro ball as he’s moved up, so I’m not expecting him to tear it up right away, and he might even see his whiff rates rise as pitchers try to attack him up and in with velocity.
Jobe is the top pitching prospect in baseball right now, and the only thing really holding him back might be health. Manager A.J. Hinch used Jobe in some high-leverage spots last fall, which showed Hinch’s trust in Jobe’s stuff and his ability to handle the pressure.
Smith is anywhere from fifth to eighth on the Orioles’ starter depth chart, depending on how you line them up; I assume Tomoyuki Sugano will get a shot before Smith does, and that if Trevor Rogers looks like his 2021 self again he’ll also get priority, but on paper Smith is probably their fifth-best starter option right now. He walked too many in Triple-A, but he’s not missing wildly and I think the ABS (automatic ball-strike system) may have skewed his numbers, so what is actually fringe control looks like well below-average control.
McDermott is anywhere from fifth to eighth on the Orioles’ starter depth chart, depending on how you line them up; I assume Tomoyuki Sugano will get a shot before McDermott does, and that if Trevor Rogers looks like his 2021 self again he’ll also get priority, but on paper McDermott is probably their fifth-best starter option right now. He walked too many in Triple-A, but he’s not missing wildly and I think the ABS (automatic ball-strike system) may have skewed his numbers, so what is actually fringe control looks like well below-average control… (and so on)
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