Here is the result in plain text:
The Baltimore Orioles began their offseason needing a front-of-the-rotation starter — either Corbin Burnes, whom they never appeared likely to re-sign, or a reasonable facsimile.
Their response thus far? One-year contracts for a 35-year-old who was an ace in Japan, right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, and a 41-year-old who is now a mid-rotation starter, righty Charlie Morton.
According to a league source briefed on the club’s plans, the Orioles are still looking for additional upgrades in free agency and via trade. But their options, if they indeed intend to make further moves, are dwindling.
The Sugano and Morton additions, combined with the signings of outfielder Tyler O’Neill and catcher Gary Sánchez, likely are not what most Orioles fans envisioned in the team’s first offseason under new owner David Rubenstein.
Now, should be the time for the Orioles to strike, when they possess some of the best young position talent in the majors and the American League is in a weakened state. But general manager Mike Elias’ work at the past two trade deadlines did not prevent the Orioles from going a combined 0-5 in the postseason. O’Neill’s three-year, $49.5 million contract, meanwhile, is the only multiyear deal Elias has awarded since taking over in November 2018. And it includes an opt-out after one year.
Right-hander Jack Flaherty is the best remaining domestic free agent. San Diego’s Dylan Cease and Seattle’s Luis Castillo remain available in trade, and perhaps Minnesota’s Pablo López and other starters (Arizona’s Merrill Kelly? Texas’ Jon Gray?) can be had, too.
But a number of those options look problematic for Baltimore.
Flaherty did not fare well with the Orioles after they acquired him at the 2023 deadline. Cease, like Burnes, would amount to a one-year rental of a potential Scott Boras free agent, at a considerable cost in young talent. Not a great strategy to pursue in back-to-back years, even with a compensatory draft pick at the end of each pitcher’s tenure factoring into the equation.
Castillo likely would require a major-league return, and the Orioles are not inclined to move Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser, or Jordan Westburg for a pitcher who is not what he once was and is owed more than $70 million over the next three years.
They also envision Heston Kjerstad as part of their outfield mix next season and could view Coby Mayo as the future replacement for first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, who is under club control for only two more seasons.
This is not to say the Orioles are doomed with their current rotation. If anything, they will find it difficult to squeeze in another starter unless he represents a considerable upgrade. Their one advantage is depth.
Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez will be followed by some combination of Sugano, Morton, and Dean Kremer. Albert Suárez, who had a 3.70 ERA in 32 games (24 starts) last season, could join the group if the Orioles want to use a six-man rotation to accommodate Sugano as he transitions to the majors. And Kyle Bradish, who underwent Tommy John surgery with an internal brace last June, could return in the second half, though any contribution from him should be considered a bonus.
Beyond that are some potential starters who have minor-league options, including Trevor Rogers, Cade Povich, and Chayce McDermott. Yet, even as Elias continues to steer clear of long-term commitments, he is not operating without risk. Sugano and Morton are older. Povich and McDermott are unproven. Rodriguez has yet to throw more than 122 innings in a season. And while Eflin gave the Orioles a strong return after arriving in one of Elias’ better trades last July, he is entering his walk year.
The Orioles could reassess at the deadline, when the Miami Marlins, among others, could be available. But the competition for starters then will be fierce, and picking off a potential free agent — the type of player who generally gets moved in July — will be tricky. From Alex Cobb and second baseman Gleyber Torres. Signing free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman would change the narrative, but require them to act out of character and block a younger player, Jace Jung.
The Pirates, entering their first full season with Paul Skenes, have made only one move in free agency, bringing back Andrew McCutchen on a one-year, $5 million contract. They also added first baseman Spencer Horwitz in a trade, but additional moves will be necessary if the team intends to compete in the relatively weak NL Central.
The MLB team with the most powerful rotation last season was the Texas Rangers.
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