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It turns out the first 12-team College Football Playoff field may be mostly locked in before championship weekend. After weeks of twists, turns and hypotheticals, figuring out the 12 teams has become mostly pretty easy by the end. But seeding those teams remains completely up in the air, and it’s where the committee will be tested.
Ten, maybe 11, teams feel like locks: Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Indiana, the Big 12 champion (Iowa State or Arizona State), the ACC champion (SMU or Clemson) and the Mountain West champion (Boise State or UNLV). That’s 11. If you believe that 11-1 SMU should be a lock regardless of the ACC Championship Game outcome, the field may be set if Clemson wins that game. If you don’t, an SMU loss would leave one spot up for grabs between Miami, Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina, along with the Mustangs.
51 after yet another late loss to Iowa. Marshall came back late to beat James Madison, win the Sun Belt East and rise up to No. 52. West Virginia lost 52-15 to Texas Tech, then fired head coach Neal Brown and now falls to No. 54. Washington State, once 8-1 overall and ranked in the top 25, ended the regular season with three consecutive surprising losses to New Mexico, Oregon State and Wyoming, all of whom finished with losing records. The Cougars drop to No. 55.
No. 57 Virginia Tech and No. 58 NC State move up after rivalry wins earned them bowl eligibility. No. 65 UConn beat UMass to move to 8-4, its most wins in a season since 2010. Meanwhile, No. 60 Auburn, No. 62 Virginia, No. 63 Wisconsin, No. 64 Cincinnati and No. 67 Michigan State all drop after losses that left them to miss out on bowl games.
This is the part of the rankings in which the majority of the remaining teams are in their final landing spot, with no hope of a bowl game. Oklahoma State’s disastrous 3-9 season ended with a 52-0 loss to Colorado and an 0-9 record in Big 12 play, dropping to No. 103. The Cowboys only felt like the worst Power 4 team down the stretch — No. 104 Mississippi State, No. 105 Florida State and No. 112 Purdue were worse. Last year, there was just one Power 4 team that finished 2-10 or worse (Vandy). This year, we got three.
ULM started 5-0 but finished 5-7, ending at No. 107. Louisiana Tech won two of its last three games to finish 5-7, bump up to No. 109, and head coach Sonny Cumbie will be back next season. Air Force won its last four games to get to 5-7 and No. 111. San Diego State, meanwhile, lost its final six games to drop to 3-9 and No. 126. Kennesaw State finished 2-10 and No. 132 in its first FBS season.
Kent State became the first 0-12 team in the FBS since 2019 with its loss to Buffalo. The Golden Flashes only had two games finish within three scores — against FCS St. Francis (Pa.) and Ball State, which fired its coach.
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