It’s time for the three-quarter-mark edition of the NBA Rookie Rankings.
The good news is that a few rookies are at least improving as the season rolls along. The bad news is that this continues to be arguably the least productive rookie class of the last 20 years. Only five rookies are averaging double-figures in points, and one of those players, the Philadelphia 76ers’ Jared McCain, will play under 600 minutes this year because of a knee injury.
For reference, last year there were eight double-figure scorers. The year before, there were nine. In 2022, we actually had 12! In 2021, following what was perceived to be a down 2020 draft class, there were still 10 double-figure scorers. There were 15 in 2020!
The last time there were this few double-digit scorers was the Malcolm Brogdon Rookie of the Year season back in 2017. That’s the season most comparable to this one from a rookie perspective. Ultimately, there were six All-Stars from that class, which is about in line with the average. However, one of those was Ben Simmons, whose career went sideways, and I would argue that, while Jaylen Brown and Pascal Siakam have had great careers as guys who have made All-NBA teams and won titles, neither has ever been the best player on a particularly good team. Currently, I think I’d take under 5.5 All-Stars to emerge from the 2024 draft class.
To refresh on the rankings as a whole: We rank the league’s top 15 rookies, based on how they have performed as NBA players. These are not based on how they are doing at the time of the rankings or a projection of the players they will become. They are full-season assessments of how they have played to this point in their NBA careers.
What do I look for when I rank players? Minutes and roles matter. What is each rookie getting asked to do? How often are they seeing the court? Are they being asked to create offense for their teams? Is their role limited, and how successful are they in that role? How successful is the team with them within that role? What is the degree of difficulty of said role? Is the player logging real minutes on a good team or eating up minutes on a bad team that doesn’t have anyone better?
This is an art, not a science. The rankings involve examining numbers and analyzing a painstaking amount of tape, and I value the latter more.
The structure is as follows: I rank the rookies, write about three of them in-depth, then explain the rest of the rankings with some notes.
Rank 1: Jaylen Wells – Memphis Grizzlies – 11.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.1 blocks
Rank 2: Stephon Castle – San Antonio Spurs – 13.4 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.2 blocks
Rank 3: Zach Edey – Memphis Grizzlies – 9.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.2 blocks
