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It’s an annual tradition: My column explaining why I think your favorite team isn’t going to win as many games as you think they are.
These predictions are for fun, not a demonstration of my deep-seated loathing for your favorite team, and not the product of a sophisticated machine-learning algorithm to produce impeccable forecasts. I make it all up, and then I talk about it. (I do, however, rely on FanGraphs’ projections as a starting point for several things here, especially some individual player projections, and this piece would be far harder without them.)
I’ve done this for at least 15 years now, and the reactions are always the same — people look for what I said about their favorite teams and then yell at me about it. I got one division winner right last year, and for the second year in a row a team I picked to finish in fourth place in their division won the pennant (the Yankees).
So, here are my projections for the 2025 season, including playoff results and post-season awards. Disagree all you like, as long as you enjoy.
I guess I’m late to the party, predicting the Red Sox to win their division (and, in this case, to have the best record in the league). They did more to upgrade their roster this winter than any other team in the American League, and they’ve made the right call at second base, giving Kristian Campbell the nod. On paper, I think they’re the best team in the AL, likely to lead or come close to leading the league in runs scored and be at or above the median in run prevention.
That said, there’s some significant downside risk in that rotation: Garrett Crochet has had only one full season as a starter, Walker Buehler’s first year back from his second Tommy John surgery was not a success, and the guys who were supposed to be their next three starters are all going to start the year on the injured list.
The Orioles were perfectly situated to make a big move with the Yankees losing Juan Soto, but they made a lot of small moves that don’t seem to add up to the big move, so their rotation remains a real weakness for a team that is trying to get to the World Series — and has the lineup and defense to do so. They don’t have a true No. 1 starter; they have a few guys who could be No. 2s on a good team, but neither Grayson Rodriguez nor Kyle Bradish is going to pitch a full season in 2025, and there’s a decent chance the Orioles don’t get 20 starts from the two combined. I’m over the fascination with Ryan Mountcastle — they have better options, including Coby Mayo, just optioned to the minor leagues the other day.
Tampa Bay losing Shane McClanahan for a month or more could hurt them significantly because they’re likely to be on the playoff bubble, so each marginal win is especially important to their odds of seeing October. They’re still likely to be an above-average run prevention team, but they’re running back almost the same offense that was the worst in the American League last year (well, among non-White Sox teams), only adding a full season of Junior Caminero.
I might have picked the Yankees to win the division before they lost Gerrit Cole for the year; he was a 5 to 7 WAR pitcher in 2021 and 2023, and replacing him with… well, whoever they replace him with is at least that much of a downgrade, maybe more if they have to hand those starts to guys who are below replacement level. Clarke Schmidt is out, Luis Gil is out, and Soto’s gone. I loved the pickup of Max Fried, but there’s only so much slack he can pick up.
The Yankees’ path to the postseason would include a breakout year from Anthony Volpe, a Rookie of the Year-level campaign from Jasson Domínguez, and a full year of the Jazz Chisholm Jr. they got in August and September. (Yes, that’d be a 6-win season. He’s physically capable of it.)
The Blue Jays are just in a bad spot; whether Roki Sasaki would have made them contenders is immaterial, as it would have at least changed fans’ perception of the team and validated the club’s previous attempts to sign some of the best free agents on the market. Now they only have two lineup members (Ezquiel Tovar and Jordan Beck) and zero rotation members born in this century. I’m hopeful that by Aug. 1, the lineup has at least two more young ‘uns, maybe Kyle Karros and Adael Amador, and the rotation has Chase Dollander and maybe even Sean Sullivan in it. The first-half version might be hard to watch, though.
Tampa Bay defeats Minnesota
Texas defeats Baltimore
Arizona defeats New York Mets
Philadelphia defeats Chicago Cubs
Boston defeats Texas
Seattle defeats Tampa Bay
Los Angeles Dodgers defeat Philadelphia
Atlanta defeats Arizona
Boston defeats Seattle
Atlanta defeats Los Angeles
Atlanta defeats Boston
AL MVP: Julio Rodríguez, OF, Seattle Mariners
Last year was an aberration — really, the first half was an aberration, and the second half was more what we expect from Rodríguez, .285/.337/.482. I’m predicting he does that and more over a full season. Also, José Ramírez seems like a permanent threat to win this, even though he’s never actually come out on top.
NL MVP: Juan Soto, OF, New York Mets
Too obvious? I thought about Elly De La Cruz, who exploded last year for a five-win season, but for him to top that I think he’d have to really make a big leap in his swing decisions and plate discipline. The guy in Los Angeles probably has a shot, too. No, not him, the other one. No, not him, either. Well, one of those guys.
AL Cy Young: Logan Gilbert, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Gilbert throws a lot of innings, doesn’t walk anyone, misses enough bats, and if he has one year where a couple of homers stay in the park instead, he’s going to win the Cy Young Award. I’ll just say it happens this year.
NL Cy Young: Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
I feel like this should be everybody’s pick. He might have the best stuff of any starter in baseball right now, at least considering the entire arsenal. The only things that might stop him are injury or the Pirates (meaning they limit his innings).
AL Rookie of the Year: Kristian Campbell, 2B/OF, Boston Red Sox
Campbell won the second base job in the waning days of spring training, and he’s likely to get a long runway even if he starts slow, giving him a big leg up on the competition for this honor.
Other candidates include the Yankees’ Jasson Domínguez, Detroit’s Jackson Jobe, and Texas’ Kumar Rocker.
NL Rookie of the Year: Roki Sasaki, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sasaki’s a boring, obvious pick, because he’s a big leaguer — he played several years in NPB, and was dominant there, so we have good reason to think he’ll pitch well enough here to be the best rookie in the NL. Plus he has a job, which only a few other rookies have on Opening Day.
Other contenders here include Washington’s Dylan Crews, the Cubs’ Matt Shaw, and Atlanta’s Drake Baldwin — all position players, who historically have had an advantage in this award over pitchers.
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