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The trade war between the world’s two biggest economies shows no signs of slowing down – Beijing has vowed to “fight to the end” hours after US President Donald Trump threatened to nearly double the tariffs on China. That could leave most Chinese imports facing a staggering 104% tax.
With a deadline looming in Washington as Trump threatens to introduce the additional tariffs from Wednesday, who will blink first?
“It would be a mistake to think that China will back off and remove tariffs unilaterally,” says Alfredo Montufar-Helu, a senior advisor to the China Center at The Conference Board think tank.
China exports a variety of goods to the US, from silk to smartphones. The prospect of negotiations between the US and Japan seemed to buoy investors who were fighting to claw back some of the losses of recent days. But the face-off between China and the US – the world’s biggest exporter and its most important market – remains a major concern.
According to the US Trade Representative office, the US imported $438bn (£342bn) worth of goods from China in 2024, with US exports to China valued at $143bn, leaving a trade deficit of $295bn.
Smartphones, computers, lithium-ion batteries, toys and video game consoles make up the bulk of Chinese exports to the US. But there are so many other things, from screws to boilers. And it’s not clear how the US is going to find alternative supply for all these goods on such short notice.
The rest of the world is watching too, to see where Chinese imports shut out of the US market will go. They will end up in other markets such as those in South East Asia, Ms Elms adds, and “these places [are dealing] with their own tariffs and having to think about where else can we sell our products?”
Unlike the trade war with China during Trump’s first term, which was about negotiating with Beijing, “it’s unclear what is motivating these tariffs and it’s very hard to predict where things might go from here,” says Roland Rajah, lead economist at the Lowy Institute.
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