Taking up the cause for Alabama and the SEC feels like going to bat for a tax break for Elon Musk or Warren Buffet. It’s fighting for the biggest bully on the block the one time somebody gets in a shot that knocks him to his knees. Yet here I am, making the case for the Crimson Tide as the team the College Football Playoff selection snubbed from the first 12-team field.
I do like having an ally in the greatest coach of all time. ESPN’s Nick Saban, dressed in a crimson jacket on the selection show, tried to avoid sounding like a shill for the program he spent 17 years running, but his stance came through loud and clear.
All wins are not the same as other wins. In other words, what we’ve always done publicly in college is look at record. We don’t look at strength of schedule. We don’t look at all those types of things.
This is a left-brain analytical thinking, right-brain emotional processing deal. If the committee truly had looked at “those types of things,” if this was more of a data-driven process, Alabama would be in the Playoff instead of SMU.
Strength of schedule metrics vary, but most come to a similar conclusion about Alabama and SMU. The Crimson Tide’s schedule was more rigorous. ESPN’s FPI has Alabama playing the 18th toughest schedule and SMU the 57th toughest.
Most power rankings, which are forward-looking analytics, have Alabama ahead of SMU. The Athletic’s own modeler, Austin Mock, would have Alabama as a six-point favorite on a neutral field against SMU.
Years of recruiting rankings will tell you Alabama has one of the most talented rosters in the country and that the SEC is where the most good football players can be found. The SEC got three teams (Georgia, Texas, Tennessee) in the bracket, one fewer than the Big Ten and one more than the ACC.
As someone with access to college tape and staff of 11 former NFL scouts that logged hundreds of hours evaluating this CFB season, it’s easy to see why SEC coaches are upset with the final playoff bracket. Based strictly off future NFL talent, Alabama, South Carolina, and Ole Miss (and you can even throw in Florida, Texas A&M, and LSU for that matter) are all easily in Top-12.
I get it. Alabama always seems to get the nod from the selection committee. When in doubt, go with the team that made the CFP eight times in 10 years when it was a four-team format — and won it three times.
Do we really need to give the benefit of the doubt to the worst Alabama team in almost two decades, one that lost games to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, both of which would not have been bowl-eligible if they hadn’t beaten the Tide? Most Alabama fans don’t even think their team had a good year.
Left brain or right brain?
How much did rallying around SMU have to do with SMU’s story – a four-decade climb back from the NCAA death penalty – more than their resume? It sure would have felt awful to keep them out of the Playoff after they lost the ACC Championship Game on what will go down as one of the greatest, clutchest kicks in the history of college football by Clemson’s Nolan Hauser.
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