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As I do every year, I’ve written up a handful of big leaguers who’ve lost their rookie/prospect status and who I think are candidates to make a significant improvement this season, whether it’s from a change in skills, a change in role or just positive trends from them over the last year or two.
I had one of my shortest breakouts lists ever last year, and I would say only one of the five players in that piece fulfilled my prediction, as Hunter Greene posted a 6.3 WAR and his 2.75 ERA was nearly two full runs below his career mark coming into the season. Another player who started strong, C.J. Abrams, had an incredible first half, hitting .268/.343/.489, but let’s just say that gamble didn’t pay off.
I’ll be waiting for the Jordan Walker breakout when he comes back from his knee injury, but I’m starting to worry his name rhymes with “Rickie Weeks.” The others were Luis Campusano, whose poor framing may be the reason the Padres have buried him, and Maikel Garcia, who cut his strikeout rate significantly and managed to have a much worse season in every other way.
My picks for 2025 breakout players aren’t in any particular order, and the only requirements I have are that they no longer be rookie-eligible and that their performance to date has been mediocre enough that they can still improve (and thus break out) from here.
Ivan Herrera, C, St. Louis Cardinals – I’ve always bought the bat, as Herrera has a great swing and makes a ton of contact, but in a small sample last season, he showed that he can make plenty of hard contact, too. His hard-hit rate and exit velocities would put him right around the MLB median for catchers had he played enough. He got just under half a season of playing time last year and was worth 1.7 bWAR; I think he’ll double that this year, assuming he gets twice the at-bats.
Jo Adell, OF, Los Angeles Angels – If Adell breaks out this year, or ever, it’ll be one of the great prospect comeback stories of the last decade, as it looked like the Angels had completely messed him up by rushing him to the majors in 2020. He played regularly for the first time in 2024 and had his best season by any measure, getting up to 0.9 WAR and cutting his strikeout rate to a manageable (if high) 27.9 percent with a 90 wRC+ that was his best in any season, even the partial ones. He even played solid-average defense.
Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays – Is this cheating? He was the No. 3 prospect in baseball going into 2024 and barely lost his prospect eligibility last season. Nobody, and I mean nobody, doubts that this kid is going to hit. I suppose the only real statement I’m making here is saying yes, it will be this year and not in 2026. I’ll be disappointed with anything less than a 4 WAR season. Also, the Rays are playing half their games at Steinbrenner Field, which has dimensions that mimic those of Yankee Stadium, and that should help the superficial performances of some of the Rays’ left-handed power bats, including Josh Lowe and Jonathan Aranda.
Spencer Arrighetti, RHP, Houston Astros – I was shocked at how ineffective Arrighetti’s four-seamer was last year, as it has plenty of run, and he gets great extension in his delivery to help it play up even more. It was worth minus-6 runs last year and hitters hit it hard when they swung at it, which is not what you’re going for here. I do think Arrighetti got too much of the heart of the plate, though, trying to get ahead with the fastball but often getting spun around instead when few guys can live in the middle of the zone with their four-seamers.
He misses plenty of bats and showed no platoon split again last year, so he can start. He was worth 0.3 bWAR last year, and I’m saying he can get that up toward 2 WAR in a full season, just with better location and sequencing of the stuff he already has.
James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals – Thirty homers, 190 strikeouts. That’s my prediction – he’s going to clobber a bunch of baseballs, and pitchers are going to find multiple ways to attack him, given the size of his strike zone. I also think he’s a better defender than what we saw from him in the majors last year; I saw him quite a bit in High A and Double A, where he showed good reads and plenty of closing speed while playing center field.
Brooks Lee, IF, Minnesota Twins – Let’s not overthink this one. Lee was a top-10 pick (No. 8, 2022), hit well in the minors, hit extremely well in Triple-A last year and was awful in the majors when he wasn’t on the IL with a herniated disc in his back or shoulder soreness.
He still squares up the ball a ton and doesn’t whiff. But in 2024, he lost a huge amount of juice: just comparing his Triple-A numbers across the two seasons, his average exit velocity dropped from 90.5 mph to 86.4, his 90th percentile EV dropped from 102.9 to 102.1 and the average of his top 50 batted balls’ EVs dropped from 100.0 to 97.1. A guy with back and shoulder problems who missed more than half the year couldn’t hit the ball as hard? You don’t say. I think we will see the real Brooks Lee this year, and he’s a 2.5+ WAR player.
… (and several more players mentioned)
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