Here is the result in plain text:
Monday’s deep dive into Paul Skenes, perhaps the most interesting extension case in baseball, was a sneak peek of Extension Week.
Now I’ll start a broader look at potential extension candidates, concentrating today on players whose value is less speculative: impending free agents.
These players are, in general, less likely to sign an extension with free agency waiting at the end of this season, and my analysis here is basically projecting what each player could earn on the open market before adding in his 2025 salary. If nothing else, it’s an early projection for a free-agent deal this upcoming winter.
Since last spring’s Extension Week, three players actually put pen to paper on an extension, all earning a bit more than I projected:
• 4 years, $136M
• 5 years, $82.5M
• 6 years, $55M
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (26)
Maybe no one in baseball had a better year for their potential earnings than Guerrero. His 5.5-win season (according to FanGraphs) washed away any concerns after a pedestrian 2023 and reminded the sport that he’s one of its very best hitters. Plus, a player with similar strengths and weaknesses signed for more than $750 million. So Guerrero is in significantly better shape this spring than he was last spring.
Let’s stick with the same comps as Gallen but only for four free-agent years rather than six.
2024 extension projection: Five years, $105 million
2025 salary: $18 million
2025 extension projection: Five years, $134 million
Devin Williams (30)
Just looking at the raw numbers isn’t charitable to Williams, who on a per-appearance basis is right there with recent closers who signed four-year deals like Raisel Iglesias and Tanner Scott. (Williams missed roughly two-thirds of last season.)
Given that no position gets paid on reputation quite the way closer does, Williams could still be in line for a deal that rivals Scott’s, before adding in this year’s salary.
2024 extension projection: N/A
2025 salary: $8.6 million
2025 extension projection: Five years, $80 million
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