Could a partial month-long truce between Russia and Ukraine be the key to unlocking a lasting peace between the two sides? President Emmanuel Macron of France believes so and he floated the idea during Sunday’s summit of European leaders in London. In an interview with Le Figaro newspaper, he proposed a four-week truce “in the air, at sea and on energy infrastructure”. It would not cover ground fighting along the front line in the east. “In the event of a ceasefire, it would be very difficult to verify [a truce] along the front was being respected,” Macron told the newspaper. In a separate interview, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said: “Such a truce on air, sea and energy infrastructure would allow us to determine whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is acting in good faith when he commits to a truce. And that’s when real peace negotiations could start.”
An initial short-term truce – something less permanent than a formal ceasefire – would provide a moment to test Russia’s willingness to negotiate a peace. It would also potentially give an early political win for President Trump. It would not involve any ceding of territory. And it could create the political space to allow serious talks to begin about a lasting peace. Under the French proposal, a European “assurance force” would deploy to Ukraine to deter future Russian aggression only after any lasting ceasefire had been agreed.
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