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DeepSeek Doesn’t Scare OpenAI, Thanks to the ‘Jevons Paradox’

Economic jargon is usually confined to textbooks and business school seminars. But every once in a while, something happens in the world that drives the lingo out of obscurity and into popular discussions. One such emergence happened late last month when, following a weekend of alarm over the viability of A.I. investments, Microsoft’s chief executive, Satya Nadella, told followers in a post on X: “Jevons paradox strikes again! As A.I. gets more efficient and accessible, we will see its use skyrocket, turning it into a commodity we just can’t get enough of.”

The Jevons Paradox is named after the 19th-century economist and logician William Stanley Jevons. In his 1865 book, “The Coal Question,” he noted that as engines improved and made coal more efficient — requiring less of the resource to produce the same amount of energy — demand for coal would actually increase, not decrease. In other words, he said, a drop in the cost of production often leads to greater production.

The paradox has a darker side. Greater coal use gave us an early taste of modern comforts we now can’t imagine living without (thank you, electricity). It also contributed greatly to global warming. Smartphones have made us more connected and productive, but also hopelessly addicted to mindless scrolling (and in some ways, lonelier).

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