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At last month’s Winter Meetings in Dallas, agent Joel Wolfe held court in front of a large group of reporters and caused a stir when discussing his client, Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki, who is expected to sign with a major-league team after the international signing period begins on Jan. 15.
Speculation about where Sasaki would ultimately land in MLB has simmered since his Nippon Professional Baseball debut in 2021, stoked by his stellar performance in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. The Dodgers are currently seen as a favorite, but it’s clear they’re not the only team in the hunt.
At the Winter Meetings, Wolfe said that Sasaki was looking for a team that has had success on the field and a history of developing pitchers. He also mentioned access to direct flights from his new city to Japan as a consideration. But perhaps most interestingly, he said that because of Sasaki’s personal experiences growing up in the spotlight in Japan, a small market team outside of the media glare might have a greater chance than some might think.
“[Sasaki] has paid attention to how teams have done, as far as overall success, both this year and years past. He does watch a lot of Major League Baseball,” Wolfe said.
What Wolfe said: “The best I can say is, he has paid attention to how teams have done, as far as overall success, both this year and years past. He does watch a lot of Major League Baseball.”
Methodology: This is pretty straightforward. Does the team win? For this, we’ll look at the winning percentage of MLB teams over the last four full seasons.
Team winning percentage, 2021-24
… (rest of the table)
Why are the good teams good? Well, those good teams win games, develop players and have money. Those three are actually tied to the categories given — with market size in part determining both direct flights to Japan and media attention, both of which impact revenue. That’s why it’s no surprise that the top three teams in our exercise are the Padres, Braves and Astros.
It is only when we get to fourth place that we have one of those small-market teams in the Brewers. The Brewers tick all those boxes, with an out-of-the-box pick in O’Hare International. (It may be in a different state, but O’Hare is just over an hour and a $114 Uber ride from Milwaukee.)
Will the Brewers be the pick? It seems unlikely, but Matt Arnold’s team can make some interesting points in its sales pitch.
The Padres had already been a team seen as having a shot at Sasaki’s services, and not just because of the team’s recent history of handing out major contracts and making big splashes. The Padres tick all the boxes that Wolfe laid out, both in general terms and in our exercise. While the top 10 is littered with big-market bullies, the Mariners, who have as much history with Japanese players as any team, finished 10th, followed by the Twins. Both teams are ahead of the Dodgers on this list, but somehow, it seems Los Angeles still has a pretty good chance of landing another Japanese superstar.
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